Hare-Clark Proportional Representation Analysis of Victorian Legislative Council Periodic Polls 2002
Proportional Representation Society of Australia Victoria-Tasmania
Branch Hare-Clark ProportionalRepresentation Analysis of Victorian Legislative Council Periodic Polls 2002 Click on underlined subject below to view it:
Details of Votes & Seats in each of 2 Hare-Clark Multi-member Provinces versus the Existing 22 Single-vacancy ProvincesGraph of Seats versus Votes Overall, for Existing ‘Winner-take-all’ Single-vacancy Provinces & for Hare-Clark PR ProvincesGraph of Seats for the Full Legislative Council (1999 & 2002 Components), for Existing “Winner-take-all” Single-vacancy Provinces & for Hare-Clark PR Provinces
The 1999 and 2002 polls for the Legislative Council, which might well be the last held under a “Winner-take-all” single-vacancy system, have resulted in the ALP holding an absolute majority of seats on the floor of the Legislative Council as well as an ALP MLC being assured of election as the President of the Legislative Council.
Had both those polls been held by Hare-Clark proportional representation instead, initiatives by the ALP, under an ALP President, could also receive an absolute majority of votes of all MLCs, and thus allow an amendment to Victoria’s Constitution Act 1975, provided that at least three other MLCs voted with the ALP. Also it is notable that there would have been fewer ALP and more Liberal MLCs if proportional representation, which the Liberal MLCs in the preceding parliaments had always rejected, had applied.
The Liberals received almost a million first preference votes, but gained only 3 seats (333,319 votes per seat). The ALP polled less than 38% above the Liberal vote, yet it obtained 21 seats (80,913 votes per seat), which is 600% more seats than the Liberals gained. The Nationals, as is often the case, needed the fewest votes per seat, as their vote, which was only 12.6% of that of the Liberals, gave them 2 seats (63,210 votes per seat), which was 67% of the 3 seats the Liberals won.
It should be noted that the National Party’s first preference vote could be expected to be larger under a Hare-Clark system where it would have its candidates able to attract votes over a wider area. It presently gets zero votes in many partly rural areas because it does not stand candidates there, owing to its not having a strong enough presence to gain a majority of votes. With the target in those areas being changed to the more voter-empowering quota concept, they should start increasing their total vote once PR is introduced.